Occasional notes on distressed hospitality, where the data does not look, and how we underwrite what we see.
The franchise agreement is the most consequential document most hotel owners ever sign, and the least examined. Three points across its life where the agreement and the promise quietly part ways.
Read the note → August 2026C-PACE is sold as the safest position in the building — senior, fixed, non-recourse. Every claim made for it is true of a deal that is working. We underwrite the one that breaks, where seniority determines position rather than recovery.
Read the note → July 2026The 2026 CMBS maturity wall is real — and largely irrelevant to hotels. The distress that matters lives in a segment no servicing report can see, and it is not arriving as a flood. It is arriving as a sort.
Read the note →